The past couple of years have seen a few big acquisitions and valuations — MySpace, YouTube, Facebook — and each time the pundits have asked, is this the next bubble? Of course the answer was no. Everyone knew the bubble was in the housing market, and once again we’re seeing the bubble burst and the economy swing into a downturn.
A bubble isn’t something that happens because somebody pays too much for something. A bubble is a form of panic, when all the money moves at the same time, overpowering supply, and sending the price of things skyrocketing until investors become desperate and lose their minds. The more money you have and the fewer people you have to take it, the bigger the bubble.
When Apple announced the iPhone SDK, they launched the next bubble. They even trotted out Kleiner Perkins to make sure anyone out there who wasn’t thinking of losing their minds started doing so immediately. Of course, the iFund isn’t the only game in town. Their $100M is just part of the money swirling around in the valley right now. I don’t think I’m out of line in suggesting there’s closer to a billion dollars trying very hard to find its way into the hands of an iPhone developer before the recession hits.
There’s just one problem: there are no engineers to write these apps. There are maybe 3000 Cocoa engineers on the planet, and most of them work for Apple. Three years ago I wasn’t sure how I was going to feed a family writing Macintosh software. Now I turn down more money in a day than I’ve made in my entire career. People in the valley who are eyeballing the huge money cloud are coming to the resource pool and finding it dry. There simply are no engineers.
A lot of smart people are learning Cocoa to be ready when the SDK hits. Many are already working on products to be ready for WWDC, being paid to learn, as it were. Come June, when the majority of developers start shopping around for talent, even the smart kids with no previous experience will be gone. That’s when things will explode. All kinds of people who have no business being anywhere near a compiler are going to get into it for the money.
This is what happened in the ‘90s. First the experienced people dried up. Then the skilled people dried up. College campuses became ghost towns as simply declaring a technical major was enough to get you a six-figure offer. Finally, anybody who could power on a computer was branded a programmer and it all went to hell. For every halfway decent techie there were ten fakers who just sucked.
Still, not everybody lost their shirts in the bubble. There were some shining stars — Google, Amazon, eBay, and so forth. Even Yahoo!, for all their troubles, could be considered a success story. I sure as hell wouldn’t mind owning 1% of their original stock. So, as the offers came in I listened to every project idea. One really sounded interested, so I took a couple of days to fly to San Jose and hang out with these guys.
So, long story short. I’ve moving to California. More details to follow!
Addenda 
Alieno
Can I come too?
Can I come too?
Jeff
Hey, I just started learning Cocoa and Objective-C this fall. I really want to join the parade.
But I live in a small town in upstate NY - Kingston to be exact. There isn't much business here after IBM left in the early 90's.
What is my next step in getting a job writing Mac software? I know that experience is key, and I am reading every book I can find, examining sample code and open-source code and generally chomping at the bit.
But is there hope for me in bumpkin-ville, NY?
Hey, I just started learning Cocoa and Objective-C this fall. I really want to join the parade.
But I live in a small town in upstate NY - Kingston to be exact. There isn't much business here after IBM left in the early 90's.
What is my next step in getting a job writing Mac software? I know that experience is key, and I am reading every book I can find, examining sample code and open-source code and generally chomping at the bit.
But is there hope for me in bumpkin-ville, NY?
Jon
I told you in person, I'll tell you again: big congratulations.
I told you in person, I'll tell you again: big congratulations.
Ash Ponders
Eep! That's super amazing.
Eep! That's super amazing.
MG
Somehow, "best of luck" doesn't quite say it. I think you're going to do so well, and I wish that someday I'll have the balls to make a move like that.
Somehow, "best of luck" doesn't quite say it. I think you're going to do so well, and I wish that someday I'll have the balls to make a move like that.
Aaron Tait
I've been programming since I was 12. I've been doing Cocoa since I was a sophomore (15). I'm a month away from being 20 and I am in my second year of university. I'm planning to move to the Bay Area in the fall. Can I get a job? Any job. Even if it is $10 an hour office monkey work.
aarontait at gmail dot com
(I thought I would be straightforward and not waste your time with small talk. Congratulations by the way!)
I've been programming since I was 12. I've been doing Cocoa since I was a sophomore (15). I'm a month away from being 20 and I am in my second year of university. I'm planning to move to the Bay Area in the fall. Can I get a job? Any job. Even if it is $10 an hour office monkey work.
aarontait at gmail dot com
(I thought I would be straightforward and not waste your time with small talk. Congratulations by the way!)
Nikc
And then the MBA says, you like Lamas? We'll buy you your own Lama!
And then the MBA says, you like Lamas? We'll buy you your own Lama!
flydadfly
that's my boy! (insert massive chest-puffing here!)
that's my boy! (insert massive chest-puffing here!)
Cameron
Why does the top of this post say "The World of Kevin"?
Why does the top of this post say "The World of Kevin"?
Glover
Well Jeebus. It's a little late for April Fool's Day, so I'm assuming this is real. Congratulations, man. You've put in the time, God knows. Best wishes.
Well Jeebus. It's a little late for April Fool's Day, so I'm assuming this is real. Congratulations, man. You've put in the time, God knows. Best wishes.
Mike Lee
Don't tell Kevin I totally stole his web log.
Don't tell Kevin I totally stole his web log.
John Muir
@ Mike
A million bucks for a national park? I wish you all the best for your project, but it might be a touch more costly than that. A billionaire husband and wife environmentalist combo have one of the largest private nature reserves in the world in southern Chile or Argentina (I can't remember the name so Wikipedia fails me for the minute…) and they had to sink a lot to get it started. They also have the government and local pressure groups on their back, despite the fact it's due to pass into national ownership once they both die.
You'll know more about Madagascar's ills than me, but I expect its biggest problem is the poverty of its people. They need a booming tourist trade – centred around the incredible natural diversity in their midst – and at just the same time as we're getting nervous about what all that CO2 is doing when we fly…
@ Jeff
At least you're already in the right country! Being out in Britain, I'm hoping that the AppStore gives me a way into this without all the insurmountable complexities of the old school alternative. I only just got into all this stuff recently like you.
@ Mike
A million bucks for a national park? I wish you all the best for your project, but it might be a touch more costly than that. A billionaire husband and wife environmentalist combo have one of the largest private nature reserves in the world in southern Chile or Argentina (I can't remember the name so Wikipedia fails me for the minute…) and they had to sink a lot to get it started. They also have the government and local pressure groups on their back, despite the fact it's due to pass into national ownership once they both die.
You'll know more about Madagascar's ills than me, but I expect its biggest problem is the poverty of its people. They need a booming tourist trade – centred around the incredible natural diversity in their midst – and at just the same time as we're getting nervous about what all that CO2 is doing when we fly…
@ Jeff
At least you're already in the right country! Being out in Britain, I'm hoping that the AppStore gives me a way into this without all the insurmountable complexities of the old school alternative. I only just got into all this stuff recently like you.
Mike Lee
A million doesn't seem like a lot for a national park, but Madagascar is pretty desperately poor. Knowing that the MFG manages two parks, and the budget they do it in, I think that's reasonable, but whatever it takes, man. Whatever it takes.
Carbon Dioxide from jets is bad. I figure people will be flying anyway, and reforesting 90% of the world's 8th largest island will help.
I also intend to do a lot more than build a resort, but that's a whole other essay.
A million doesn't seem like a lot for a national park, but Madagascar is pretty desperately poor. Knowing that the MFG manages two parks, and the budget they do it in, I think that's reasonable, but whatever it takes, man. Whatever it takes.
Carbon Dioxide from jets is bad. I figure people will be flying anyway, and reforesting 90% of the world's 8th largest island will help.
I also intend to do a lot more than build a resort, but that's a whole other essay.
Adam
Argh! I wanted to point to your entry to inspire a co-worker/co-conspirator, but the text seems to have been denuded overnight.
Ah well. Best of luck to you in your new adventure in California! I hope you can continue to be as forthcoming on your blog as you have been in the past, Mr Chief Architect.
Argh! I wanted to point to your entry to inspire a co-worker/co-conspirator, but the text seems to have been denuded overnight.
Ah well. Best of luck to you in your new adventure in California! I hope you can continue to be as forthcoming on your blog as you have been in the past, Mr Chief Architect.
Mike Lee
Sorry about that. The story is really so much more interesting than what I wrote. I realized the few paragraphs I had didn't do it justice. I need to wait until things settle down a little more so I can really take the time to explain things properly.
As far as the blog goes, that's exactly why I called it "Motherfucker." So right from the start you know I'm not going to pull my punches. That's served me well, and I don't plan on changing that.
Sorry about that. The story is really so much more interesting than what I wrote. I realized the few paragraphs I had didn't do it justice. I need to wait until things settle down a little more so I can really take the time to explain things properly.
As far as the blog goes, that's exactly why I called it "Motherfucker." So right from the start you know I'm not going to pull my punches. That's served me well, and I don't plan on changing that.
Andrew Pontious
I wonder how many of those new iPhone engineers will come from Apple. Will Apple have to fight to keep its talent from the very phenomenon it has created?
Apple did lose people to the dotcom bubble. Most of 'em are back now. ;-)
I wonder how many of those new iPhone engineers will come from Apple. Will Apple have to fight to keep its talent from the very phenomenon it has created?
Apple did lose people to the dotcom bubble. Most of 'em are back now. ;-)
Name of a Dog
It's all so true. Apple laid me off in '03, at age 62. And nobody but nobody would even think seriously about hiring a software engineer at that age (except maybe Google, but their Hard Questions were just too fucking hard).
But even though discouraged, and working as a technical writer, I kept up my Cocoa moves. And along comes the iPhone SDK, and of course I download it right away and start screwing around with it. A few days later comes an email from an old friend asking if I'm interested in joining his startup and working on an iPhone app. I told him, "Yeah, I'm already working on it!"
That SDK is the best thing that's happened to me in years. And to some other folks too.
Some day when both our apps are out, let's meet and swap some rocks, motherfucker.
It's all so true. Apple laid me off in '03, at age 62. And nobody but nobody would even think seriously about hiring a software engineer at that age (except maybe Google, but their Hard Questions were just too fucking hard).
But even though discouraged, and working as a technical writer, I kept up my Cocoa moves. And along comes the iPhone SDK, and of course I download it right away and start screwing around with it. A few days later comes an email from an old friend asking if I'm interested in joining his startup and working on an iPhone app. I told him, "Yeah, I'm already working on it!"
That SDK is the best thing that's happened to me in years. And to some other folks too.
Some day when both our apps are out, let's meet and swap some rocks, motherfucker.
Pierre Bernard - Another Cocoa / iPhone engineer
Is this the end of United Lemur?
Is this the end of United Lemur?
Hans
What a depressing entry to read when I just took a job building a dev team in Seattle.
Congrats!
What a depressing entry to read when I just took a job building a dev team in Seattle.
Congrats!
I need to get this up because a lot of people are wondering what is going on. I will proofread it, and probably revise it, later.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Bubble Boggle
